Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Week 13 fantasy football moves to make now

The BYE weeks have come and gone, and Thanksgiving week is here. Happy Thanksgiving, and I hope you are giving thanks to some good fantasy times amongst the obviously more important things in life. If you snagged Latavius Murray (Oakland) and C.J. Anderson (Denver) who were featured in last week's article you likely are coming off a strong week, and if you followed my FanDuel recommendations last week you likely crushed it: Demaryius Thomas, Josh Gordon, Odell Beckham Jr. and Isaiah Crowell all paid off handsomely. Let's keep it coming, just five weeks remain in the regular season – and likely only one or two more weeks before most leagues start their fantasy playoffs. 

C.J. Anderson (Denver) is likely long gone, but if not add him of course. Anderson has been the number one running back over the last three weeks. As well as he has played, it is hard to imagine Denver turning back to Montee Ball or Ronnie Hillman, plus those guys probably won't even be back anytime soon. 

I featured Latavius Murray (Oakland) last week and he is likely the top waiver claim after an incredible 126-yard performance with 2 rushing touchdowns...on four carries. Unfortunately, a concussion ended his night or who knows what he may have done. Murray will likely be questionable for Week 13. 

Dan Herron (Indianapolis) looks as though he will fill the role of injured Ahmad Bradshaw, while Trent Richardson will continue in his role. Herron out-touched Richardson 17 to 13 this week, and he certainly was far more effective. Richardson posted another game at around 3.2 yards per carry, while Herron averaged 5.4 yards per carry. Any part of the Colts' offense is worth adding and arguably Herron has more value than Richardson going forward. Speaking of the Colts, someone may have cut rookie receiver Donte Moncrief and if so, scoop him up. Moncrief is a particularly important handcuff if you have T.Y. Hilton. 

Lost in the shuffle of the epic rookie receiver class has been the play of Jarvis Landry (Miami). Over his last three games, Landry has 19 receptions and three touchdowns. Landry led the team with 11 targets last week and while he hasn't had huge yardage games (he averges 45 yards per game since Week 2), Landry has been highly consistent. Landy has at least three receptions in every game since Week 2 and he averages 4.9 receptions per game over that time frame. He's turning into a solid number three receiver in point-per-reception formats.

Stedman Bailey (St. Louis) has been virtually non-existent through the first 11 games of the year, but he may have earned a bump in playing time after this week. Bailey was targeted nine times (after 10 targets in Weeks 1-11) and he converted seven of those into receptions for 89 yards and his first NFL receiving TD. Look for Bailey to continue to line up opposite Kenny Britt. 

Charles Johnson (Minnesota) was a favorite target of Teddy Bridgewater again in week 12, seeing 11 passes thrown his way. Johnson was only able to convert three, but his volume may make him a serviceable addition going forward. Johnson also scored his first NFL touchdown this week. Coming out of Grand Valley State, Johnson wasn't invited to last year's NFL Combine, but he has plenty of raw talent. At the Grand Valley State Pro Day last year, Johnson ran a 4.39 in the 40-yard dash and also posted a 39.5" vertical and 11'1" broad jump all of which are elite. 

After struggling with injuries and inconsistency the first half of 2014, tight end Eric Ebron (Detroit) seems to finally be gaining the trust of Matthew Stafford. Ebron has four or more targets in each of his last five games played. Ebron is still a clear fantasy backup but he has upside with his raw skill set (Ebron was selected with the 10th pick in this year's NFL Draft). 

The St. Louis Rams Defense likely have been long-since dropped in your league. They are heating up. They have 21 sacks over the last five games and notched a defensive touchdown last week. The Rams' defense are second in the NFL in sacks over the last five weeks. They have some favorable match-ups coming up and in the fantasy playoffs to make note of. 

Other fantasy notes 
Golden Tate (Detroit) has notched his first-ever 1,000-yard season of his NFL career here with five weeks still to go. NFL 2014: there are six receivers over 1,000 yards receiving but just one running back (DeMarco Murray) with 1,000 yards rushing. 

After 861 yards as a rookie, T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis) has his first 1,000-yard season after his 5th game of 100+ yards this week - Hilton is averaging 98 yards per game and is on pace to finish 2014 with 1,575 receiving yards. 

Andre Johnson (Houston) has one lonely touchdown this year. 

Andre Ellington (Arizona) has really faded of late - over the last three games Ellington averages 1.9 yards per carry, with 89 rushing yards on 47 attempts (although he's good for 4-5 receptions pretty much every week). 

What has gotten into Justin Forsett (Baltimore) and how in the world could Jacksonville have cut him this summer? Forsett (29 years of old) is having an inspirational season. Forsett is on pace for 1,619 yards from scrimmage and is currently 6th-best running back in PPR formats – he has more points than Jamaal Charles!

Want a good reason to never draft a defense early? The Seattle Defense were almost universally agreed upon to be in their own tier in this year's fantasy drafts. Somewhat surprisingly, they are just the 16th best fantasy defense on the season - on pace for just 23 sacks this year!

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