Sunday, August 31, 2014

The ideal draft if you have a late draft slot


The premise of this article is straight-forward enough. If you end up with either the 9th overall, 10th, 11th or 12th draft slot (and assuming 12 teams) what strategy should you consider who to target? Based on average draft position data from Fantasy Football Calculator, this combination is possible and a potential combination to put you well on your way to a fantasy football title in 2014. This series scripts out the first eight rounds, with each set including a minimum of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE and a RB/WR/TE flex. For this spot, I am assuming the 12th overall draft position (so the 12th pick in the odd rounds, and the 1st pick in the even rounds as the draft "snakes" back and forth). 


1st ROUND - WR A.J. Green, Cincinnati: I would rather roll with the upside of Dez Bryant if he is there (I am assuming not for the sake of this article). But someone has to fall to the #12 spot, and there's a good chance it is A.J. Green and if so it's a phenomenal way to start your draft. For starters, it is super safe. Green has zero bust factor. Even if the Bengals pass less in 2014, Green is still good for 1400 yards, or worst case 1300 yards, and he is off back-to-back 11 TD seasons.

2nd ROUND - RB Montee Ball, Denver: I have seen a draft where Dez Bryant and A.J. Green were taken here on the 1.12/2.01 post and I love that start to a draft. I think you can make a good case for still going WR-WR with Brandon Marshall or Julio Jones, but the reality is a sure-fire #1 RB on your team is also a very smart thing to get in the bank. There are a ton of points to be had in Denver and Montee Ball has Top 3 upside on this team – I mean, Knowshon Moreno was the 4th best fantasy running back last year for crying out loud. 

3rd ROUND - WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota: Landing Cordarrelle Patterson at the right price should be a key objective in your fantasy draft if you ask me and he's a phenomenal number two fantasy wide receiver. We saw what Patterson is capable of over the final month of the 2013 season as he was the 9th best fantasy receiver down the stretch. Now with a full camp under his belt, and a huge offensive coordinator upgrade in Norv Turner, Patterson is set to bust out in a major way. Not only did Patterson have four receiving touchdowns in the second half of the season last year, he added three rushing touchdowns in the final five games. 

4th ROUND - QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit: Matthew Stafford is one of five quarterbacks in the top tier on my board (we covered Andrew Luck in the first team of this series), and Stafford is worth the premium here in the fourth round. Stafford gets a coaching upgrade in new head coach Jim Caldwell and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi (who together have coached Peyton Manning and Drew Brees– not a bad duo). Look for Stafford to significantly cut down on mental mistakes and interceptions, while shining in what will essentially be the New Orleans offense brought to the Motor City. Adding Golden Tate is also a plus over the #2 wide receivers Stafford has worked with over his last three seasons. Stafford has averaged 4,885 passing yards per season over the last three years and Stafford is capable of 40+ touchdowns (he had 41 in 2011). 

5th ROUND - WR Torrey Smith, Baltimore: Let me start by saying I am not a huge Torrey Smith fan per se, but he's good value in the late 5th round of drafts and a super safe #3 fantasy wide receiver who has some upside. Smith seems like he’s been around forever and the book is written on him but that isn't the case. Smith is just 25 years old and entering just his 4th NFL season – he still is improving (his receptions spiked from 49 in 2012 to 65 last year and his yards were a career-best 1,128 last year). New offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak knows how to feature a number 1 receiver (see Andre Johnson), adding Steve Smith will help free up some coverage for Smith, and Smith is in a contract season to boot. 

6th ROUND – WR Brandin Cooks, New Orleans: We covered Brandin Cooks extensively in the FFW Rookie Guide and ranked him aggressively before the NFL Draft actually – because he is a special, special talent. Don’t let the size or the bust that was Tavon Austin last year affect your approach, Cooks has the ability to put up significant fantasy numbers as a rookie receiver. Cooks especially has that chance playing for the Saints with Drew Brees as his quarterback and Sean Payton designing ways to best utilize his new weapon. "Sonic Boom", as he is nicknamed, comes into the NFL as last year’s Biletnikoff Award winner off a season with 128 receptions, 1,730 receiving yards and 16 TDs. Cooks has blazing speed (he put up a 4.33 in the 40-yard-dash at the Combine), but perhaps even more impressive was his times in 20- and 60–yard shuttle showing his elite quickness and ability to get to top speed in an instant – his 3.81 and 10.72 times, respectively, were the best scores at the Combine since 2006. 

7th ROUND – RB Mark Ingram, New Orleans: Yes, Mark Ingram. In fact, Ingram in my mind is part of a clever strategy to dominate fantasy football this year as you wait on a second running back and then smoothly land a solid one on the cheap here in the 7th round. Even the 7th round is “over-paying” for Ingram relative to his average draft position a little, but Ingram is worth paying the premium. Ingram has looked exceptional in pre-season and it is finally time for the former Heisman Trophy winner to get 200+ carries this season, and he also will get more receptions than you might think, plus dominate carries around the goal line for one of the best offenses in the NFL. 

8th ROUND - TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia: If you are looking for a sleeper tight end this year, look no further than 2nd-year plater Zach Ertz. Philadelphia QB Nick Foles has compared Ertz to Rob Gronkowski in terms of talent (Foles played with Gronkowski at the University of Arizona). Ertz could be the Eagles’ leading red-zone threat and he is set to bust out after a very solid rookie season (with nearly 500 yards and four scores). Ertz was the leading receiver at Stanford in his senior season in 2012 and he very well could also be the Eagles' leading receiver this year, and on a team that will be running a disproportionate number of plays with the up-tempo approach Chip Kelly employs. 

Saturday, August 30, 2014

The ideal draft if you have a middle draft slot


The premise of this article is straight-forward enough. If you end up with either the 5th overall, 6th, 7th or 8th draft slot (and assuming 12 teams) what strategy should you consider who to target? Based on average draft position data from Fantasy Football Calculator, this combination is possible and a potential combination to put you well on your way to a fantasy football title in 2014. This series scripts out the first eight rounds, with each set including a minimum of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE and a RB/WR/TE flex. For this spot, I am assuming the 8th overall draft position (so the 8th pick in the odd rounds, and the 5th pick in the even rounds as the draft "snakes" back and forth). 



1st ROUND – WR Demaryius Thomas, Denver: Off back-to-back 1400+ yard seasons with Peyton Manning as his quarterback, an anomaly 2,000-yard season for Demaryius Thomas this year is not out of the question. I also like the idea of starting a draft with Jimmy Graham right around this spot.

2nd ROUND - RB Giovani Benard, Cincinnati: Giovani Benard is on a very short list of running backs that will approach 70 receptions, he will get a ton of work (new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson will have the Bengals running significantly more than they did last year) and Benard is a big play waiting to happen.

3rd ROUND - TE Julius Thomas, Denver: In my book there are two high-end stud tight ends in the draft, Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas (with Graham being on his own tier however). Starting a draft with two Bronco Thomas receivers within the first three rounds will make for some super enjoyable games and consistent elite production.

4th ROUND - WR Michael Crabtree, San Francisco: This pick is more about the general draft strategy that the 4th round (and 5th) is about landing still very solid if not elite wide receivers. There's a handful of receivers I would feel comfortable with here but I will spotlight Michael Crabtree. Look for San Francisco to pass more in 2014 and Crabtree will benefit the most from those additional opportunities. Crabtree and Colin Kaepernick have good chemistry together. In 2012, Crabtree averaged 88 yards per game and scored 7 TDs in ten games with Kaepernick. I also think Percy Harvin is a good option here, and if so my pick in the 7th round might be even more fun.

5th ROUND - WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis: The Colts will be much more of a pass-first team in 2014 and that will mean good things for T.Y. Hilton who is Andrew Luck's first read on most passing plays. The two entered the NFL together and will take another leap in their third season together. Hilton is also a big play waiting to happen. To close out 2013, and in the playoffs, Hilton ignited for 17 receptions, 327 yards and 2 TDs in two games.

6th ROUND - WR Julian Edelman, New England: Julian Edelman comes into 2014 with a new contract (he received a 4-year, $17M deal back in March) and for the first time locked in as a starting wide receiver for the Patriots. After just 69 receptions in four seasons, Edelman spiked to 101 last year and should be above the 100-catch mark again. He is very good value for his average draft position.

7th ROUND - QB Russell Wilson, Seattle: I have been higher than probably anyone on Russell Wilson ranking (and by a wide margin) and the insane pre-season performance from Wilson has me feeling even more aggressive. If everyone follows ADP, Wilson should be had even later in the draft. That said, the 7th round is a huge value (Wilson should be going in the 4th or 5th round if you ask me).

8th ROUND - RB Carlos Hyde, San Francisco: Winning fantasy football is sometimes about luck, and I don't wish anything but health and success for Frank Gore, but if Carlos Hyde were to suddenly find himself as the starter in San Francisco, you are talking about a 1st round fantasy pick (and potentially Top 5 RB) value here in the 8th round. Regardless, Hyde is going to be liberally mixed in and you could do worse as a RB2, especially given the rest of this stacked team.

Friday, August 29, 2014

The ideal draft if you have an early draft slot

The premise of this article is straight-forward enough. If you end up with either the 1st overall, 2nd, 3rd or 4th draft slot (and assuming 12 teams) what strategy should you consider who to target? Based on average draft position data from Fantasy Football Calculator, this combination is possible and a potential combination to put you well on your way to a fantasy football title in 2014. This series scripts out the first eight rounds, with each set including a minimum of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE and a RB/WR/TE flex. For this spot, I am assuming the 4th overall draft position (so the 4th pick in the odd rounds, and the 9th pick in the even rounds as the draft "snakes" back and forth). 


1st ROUND – RB Eddie Lacy, Green Bay: I go back and forth between Adrian Peterson and Eddie Lacy as my top running back for 2014, and would love to start a draft with either here at the top of the draft. Lacy was the #6 running back last year as a rookie and despite playing on a clipped offense without QB Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are loaded with weapons and Lacy will have tons of scoring opportunities.

2nd ROUND – WR Alshon Jeffery, Chicago: After going running back in the first round, landing a Tier 1 fantasy wide receiver in the second is a great start. Alshon Jeffery averaged 16.0 yards per catch last year (on 89 receptions), a full three yards more than teammate Brandon Marshall averaged last year. You could make a strong case for Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson here also, and one of these three receivers should make it to you. 

3rd ROUND – RB Andre Ellington, Arizona: Strike this recommendation if Randall Cobb has slid into the third round, but assuming that’s not the case there isn’t likely a wide receiver worth selecting over a young, dynamic workhorse running back. Andre Ellington will be a big advantage in PPR scoring (he had 39 receptions in somewhat of a reserve role last year). Ellington played 26 of 29 snaps in the Week 3 pre-season game racking up 75 yards. 

4th ROUND – QB Andrew Luck, Indianapolis: The Colts stubbornly ran the ball too much last year. They won't make the same mistake this year of watching Trent Richardson run into the backs of offensive lineman. Indy will throw a ton more, Andrew Luck adds a lot as a rushing QB and Indy is loaded with weapons (not only with the addition of Hakeem Nicks, but the return of WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dwayne Allen).

5th ROUND – WR Michael Floyd, Arizona: Michael Floyd will significantly build upon his 1,041-yard season from a year ago and he brings big-play ability (Floyd averaged 16 yards per catch last year, 6th best in the league last year for receivers with 50+ receptions). Floyd is a gem of a pick if he's sitting there in the 5th round, and in this scenario you would suddenly find yourself watching Arizona Cardinals’ with your Ellington/Floyd combo. 

6th ROUND – WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee: To win your fantasy league, you cannot go straight chalk down average draft position and we aren’t doing that with this pick.  This is drafting Justin Hunter much higher than his ADP, but likely someone is going to reach and it is not a bad time to do so if you can add Hunter as your #3 WR. In limited playing time last year, Hunter scored 4 TDs on 18 receptions (with a 19.7 yards per catch average) and he has been dominating in camp. 

7th ROUND – TE Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota: The Vikings inked Kyle Rudolph to a new 6-year, $37M deal this off-season and for good reason – he is a Pro Bowl type talent and we have not seen his best days. Rudolph has dropped about 10 pounds and running much faster this year – we saw that in Week 2 of the pre-season with Rudolph collecting a 51-yard touchdown – plus new OC Norv Turner knows how to turn tight ends into NFL (and fantasy) stars. Assuming you are at the 1.04 spot, you may want to flip around the Hunter/Rudolph picks (depending on what other teams have on their roster). 

8th ROUND - WR Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina: Like I said with the Justin Hunter pick, we aren’t making picks to draft along average draft position, we are going and getting talent that will help win a fantasy title. Especially as a fourth wide receiver, Kelvin Benjamin has a ton of upside to gamble on with this pick to close out the 8th round. Benjamin should be very effective in the red zone and quickly become QB Cam Newton’s best friend on Sundays (especially relative to the other receiving options on the team). 

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Kelvin Benjamin vs. other top young receivers

Who will be better in 2014, Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina) or second-year wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins (Houston), Justin Hunter (Tennessee), or Terrance Williams (Dallas)? This question - and decision on who you should take in your fantasy drafts - is likely one you will be facing somewhere in the 7th or 8th rounds of drafts (assuming 12 teams). 

The Panthers have completely re-tooled their receiving corps heading into 2013, including Kelvin Benjamin who the team spent 28th pick in the draft to add to the roster. Benjamin no doubt gives Cam Newton a different type of weapon than he’s ever worked with as he towers at 6'5". Benjamin led the ACC last year with 15 receiving touchdowns and ranked tied for 3rd in the nation. 

At last, the Houston Texans finally have added a legitimate talent opposite Andre Johnson. It was a fairly successful rookie season last year for DeAndre Hopkins as he finished with just over 800 yards on 52 receptions. However, Hopkins was super light in the touchdown department hitting paydirt just two times. Hopkins was more effective than Johnson (per pass play Hopkins average about a yard more than Johnson and Hopkins averaged 15.4 yards per catch compared to 12.9 for Johnson).

Justin Hunter didn't get a ton of targets or have many receptions as rookie but he sure did make the most of them. On 18 receptions, Hunter averaged 19.7 yards per catch and scored 4 TDs, a TD every 4.5 receptions. Hunter scored 4 TDs on 18 receptions, compared to Kendall Wright who had just 2 TDs on 94 receptions. In fact, if you also include the 15 receptions Hunter has in pre-season last year and through three games this year, he has scored 8 times on 33 receptions since putting on a Titans' jersey.

It didn't take Terrance Williams long to displace Miles Austin from the starting lineup for the Cowboys, and letting Austin walk from the team. Williams finished his rookie season with a solid 44-catch, 736-yard, 5- TD season. Williams averaged 16.7 yards per catch last season (to 13.3 for Dez Bryant). In 2012, his senior year at Baylor, Williams led the nation with 1,832 receiving yards.

Over at Fantasy Football Warehouse, there is a fun - and free - competition going on, with final picks due August 31st at midnight. It is a series of polls - 30 of them ... I line them up and you knock them down. Think of it is a drafting boot camp, simulating decisions you will be making in your draft. The "Speed Bump Challenge", as it is called, pits NFL stars against one another where you vote on who will be the better fantasy player in 2014. Picking from this set of four receivers is one of the 30 polls included in the Speed Bump Challenge, helping you to put you through your mental paces of fantasy draft preparation.

In total, 123 players are covered in the Speed Bump Challenge, or just over 12 rounds of fantasy action in a typical 12-team league, with 25 quarterbacks, 35 running backs, 55 wide receivers and 8 tight ends. The final probability of getting all 30 polls correct came at an astronomical 1 in 513 Quadrillion, 587 Trillion, 385 Billion, 819 million, 546 thousand - but that's if you randomly guess! Also, each poll includes expert analysis from a guest fantasy football website. If you are curious, Kelvin Benjamin is a big underdog in this poll. Benjamin gets 11% of the vote. The leader is Terrance Williams with 54%, followed by Justin Hunter with 20% and DeAndre Hopkins with 15%. 

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Who are the top 15 fantasy tight ends for 2014?


Last up in our series on the top fantasy football skill position players for 2014, we look at the tight end position. Generally speaking, draft Jimmy Graham anywhere from the middle first round, and Julius Thomas is a great pick in the 3rd round - however, if you aren't one of the first to draft a tight end then load up on running backs and wide receivers and be one of the last teams to draft one. 

1. Jimmy Graham, New Orleans - This one doesn't take much analysis: Jimmy Graham is in his own tier among fantasy tight ends. Scoring 16 touchdowns again is asking for a lot but then again it is Jimmy Graham we are talking about. Graham could reasonably go as high as pick five in a draft. 

2. Julius Thomas, Denver - Like Jimmy Graham (and Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates before that), Julius Thomas is a former basketball player turned tight end star in the NFL. Thomas scored 12 touchdowns last year and he is a good bet to replicate that this year, if not exceed that, with Eric Decker off the team and Wes Welker battling a new concussion. 

3. Rob Gronkowski, New England - Based on upside, Rob Gronkowski deserves to be the 3rd-ranked tight end but simply put I don't trust him and I am not drafting him anywhere near where he likely will go in drafts. As an added bad mojo factor, the Patriots just traded for Tim Wright from the Buccaneers. 

4. Jordan Cameron, ClevelandJordan Cameron popped last season for 80 catches, 917 yards and 7 TDs, and he should be just as busy (if not more) this season. Cameron is easily the Browns' best receiving threat. The only concern is double-digit touchdowns seem unlikely in this offense. 

5. Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota - Minnesota inked Kyle Rudolph to a new 6-year, $37M deal this off-season and for good reason - he is a Pro Bowl type talent and we have not yet seen his best days. Rudolph has dropped about 10 pounds and is running much faster this year – we saw that in Week 2 of the pre-season with Rudolph collecting a 51-yard touchdown, plus new offensive coordinator Norv Turner knows how to turn tight ends into NFL (and fantasy) stars. 

6. Vernon Davis, San Francisco – I wouldn’t overpay for Vernon Davis, especially as I like the next two tight ends on this list nearly as much, but there are few on the board that have a reasonable chance for double-digit touchdowns (Davis had 13 last year).

7. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia – If you are looking for a sleeper tight end this year, look no further than 2nd year Zach Ertz. Philadelphia QB Nick Foles has compared Ertz to Rob Gronkowski in terms of talent (Foles played with Gronkowski at the University of Arizona). Ertz could be the Eagles’ leading red-zone threat. 

8. Jordan Reed, WashingtonJordan Reed brings big-time upside as a receiving tight end and we saw that last year. Over a five-week span from Weeks 6-10, and prior to missing most of the end of 2013 battling effects from a concussion, Reed was actually the No. 1 fantasy tight end scoring 82.90 fantasy points over that time period. As an added bonus, former tight end coach Sean McVay is now the team’s offensive coordinator. 

9. Greg Olsen, CarolinaGreg Olsen is one of the safest tight end picks on the board, and his reception total has increased every season since joining the Panthers (from 45 in 2011 to 69 in 2012 and 73 in 2013). However, while Olsen has a high floor, his ceiling isn’t as high as others in terms of a chance at 1,000 yards or 10 touchdowns. 

10. Dennis Pitta, Baltimore – New offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak heavily utilized the tight end position while in Houston (they averaged 88 receptions, 1,067 yards and 8 TDs over the last five seasons), and Dennis Pitta is much more talented than anyone he had on those rosters. Baltimore signed Pitta to a 5-year, $32.5M deal this past off-season. 

11. Jason Witten, Dallas – Now 32 years old, Jason Witten has been a model of elite consistency. Since 2007, Witten has finished in the Top 10 among tight ends every single season, ranking No. 1 in 2007, then No. 2, No. 8, No. 1, No. 6, No. 5 and No. 6. That said, Witten dropped to 851 yards last season (his lowest since 2006) and a slight drop-off from that is reasonable given his age and the other receivers on the Cowboys. 

12. Ladarius Green, San Diego – Depending on where you put the cutoff for receptions, Ladarius Green’s 22.1 yards per catch average last year was the best season on that metric in NFL history. The big factor is how will San Diego utilize Green, and with Antonio Gates still starting. Green though is worth the gamble and San Diego has to find a way to utilize Green in the offense. It's a short list of 6-6 tight ends that can blaze a 4.53 in the 40-yard-dash, as Green did in the 2012 Combine.

13. Martellus Bennett, Chicago – Similar to the write-up above on Greg Olsen, Martellus Bennett likely isn't a candidate for 1,000 yards or 10 touchdowns, but he is super safe to replicate what he did last season (Bennett finished as the #10 tight end with 65 receptions, 759 yards and five touchdowns). 

14. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh – Coming off of a season with one touchdown, Heath Miller could be flying a bit under the radar. This is especially true as Pittsburgh will not have Jerricho Cotchery and Emmanuel Sanders on the team who collectively scored 15 TDs last year. Miller was one of the NFL leaders around the end zone as recently as 2012 when he collected 8 TDs that year (and in 2012, Miller caught 10 passes inside the 10-yard line, the most of any player in the NFL that season).

15. Charles Clay, Miami – As mentioned in the article preface, waiting on a tight end is not such a bad strategy and you wouldn't be too bad off with Charles Clay (and maybe you quickly draft another tight end such as Cincinnati's Tyler Eifert). Clay was the surprise No. 8 fantasy tight end last year with 69 receptions, 759 yards and 6 touchdowns – plus there aren't many tight ends that will also get some random rushing attempts (Clay, initially drafted as a fullback, also scored a rushing touchdown last year). 

You can get full tight end rankings here at Fantasy Football Warehouse…

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Who are the top 15 fantasy wide receivers?


There is a fairly long list of truly elite fantasy wide receivers for the 2014 season, and getting one or two of these players early in your draft should be a big priority (and starting a draft with two of the top receivers certainly is not a bad strategy either). The NFL will be more-strictly enforcing the illegal contact rule which could make for even bigger fantasy seasons this year from the game's elite. 

1. Demaryius Thomas, Denver - Off back-to-back 1400+ yard seasons with Peyton Manning as his quarterback, an anomaly 2,000-yard season for Demaryius Thomas this year is not out of the question. 

2. Calvin Johnson, Detroit - Look for the Lions' passing attack to be more effective this season; Calvin Johnson averages 101 receptions, 1,712 yards and 11 TDs over his last three seasons and those are good benchmarks for his 2014 prognosis. 

3. Dez Bryant, Dallas - While he's number three on my board, Dez Bryant has a puncher's chance to be the top wideout in 2014; Bryant collected a league-best 9 receiving touchdowns inside the 5-yard-line last year. 

4. A.J. Green, Cincinnati – It's likely the Bengals will run more in 2014 than last year, but A.J. Green nonetheless is the color of money for an early fantasy pick. You simply cannot miss with Green as he enters year four in the NFL (and off a career-best season: 98 receptions, 1,426 yards to go along with 11 TDs). 

5. Julio Jones, Atlanta – Injury concern is the only reason for pause (Julio Jones is returning from having a screw replaced in his foot); before being shut down last year, Jones was the #1 fantasy wide receiver through Week 5. Jones is well worth the gamble in the early 2nd round of drafts. 

6. Brandon Marshall, Chicago - Brandon Marshall has now had 1000+ yards for seven straight seasons and the good times will continue in 2014. Marshall has played with Jay Cutler in five of those seasons and in every one of them Marshall has hit or eclipsed the 100-catch mark: 102 (2007), 104 (2008), 101 (2009), 118 (2012) and 100 (2013).

7. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay – Fresh off a $39M, 4-year extension to remain a Packer, Jordy Nelson had a surprise career-season last year with 1,314 yards and he is a good candidate for even more in 2014 now that Aaron Rodgers back under center. 

8. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh - Antonio Brown may not be able to replicate last season’s 1,498 yards, but it was no fluke and Brown is a blue chip addition to your fantasy team. Brown was second in the NFL last year in both receiving yards and receptions (110). 

9. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago - Jay Cutler tends to look Brandon Marshall’s way disproportionately so, but that doesn't mean Alshon Jeffery won't also have another dominant fantasy season here in his third year in the league. Jeffery averaged 16.0 yards per catch (on 89 receptions last year), a full three yards more than Brandon Marshall averaged last year. 

10. Randall Cobb, Green Bay – As a rule of thumb, you can’t have too many of these high-end Green Bay Packers this year. Assuming Randall Cobb can stay healthy (Cobb suffered a broken leg last year), he is a fairly safe bet for 100 receptions and Cobb should be a candidate for double-digit TDs in this offense. 

11. Cordarrelle Patterson, MinnesotaCordarrelle Patterson is one of my key sleepers this year. I would be willing to take him in the 3rd round but it will be time for a mini celebration if you can land him in the 4th round. Patterson will also add to the cause with rushing yards and rushing touchdowns (Patterson scored three times on 12 rushing attempts last year). 

12. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco – Look for San Francisco to pass more in 2014 and Michael Crabtree will benefit the most from those additional opportunities. Crabtree and Colin Kaepernick have good chemistry together. In 2012, Crabtree averaged 88 yards per game and scored 7 TDs in ten games with Kaepernick. 

13. Keenan Allen, San Diego – You have to wonder how much upside there is with Keenan Allen, but he is a safe bet to meet or somewhat exceed his 2013 production. Allen has reportedly added 5-6 pounds of muscle this off-season and is said to be a little faster as well. 

14. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis – The Colts will be much more of a pass-first team in 2014 and that will mean good things for T.Y. Hilton who is Andrew Luck’s first read on most passing plays. Luck and Hilton entered the NFL together and they both will take a leap forward in their third season together. 

15. Michael Floyd, Arizona – Look for a "3rd year breakout" for Michael Floyd who will take the mantle from Larry Fitzgerald as Arizona's top wideout. Floyd will significantly build upon his 1,041-yard season from a year ago and brings attractive big-play ability (Floyd averaged 16 yards per catch last year). 

You can get full wide receiver rankings here at Fantasy Football Warehouse…

Friday, August 22, 2014

Who are the top 15 fantasy running backs?


Today we take a look at one of the bread and butter positions of your fantasy team - running back. There used to be a day in fantasy football where running backs would dominate the first round of fantasy drafts. Not so anymore. Don't overreach for running backs - especially as the upper tier of wide receivers are a key to success this year.  Plus running back is actually a fairly deep category - and the list drops off considerably after the top six or seven at the position. 

1. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia - Depending on your league scoring rules LeSean McCoy is a good bet to be the top pick and won’t make it past number five in your draft. The back nicknamed "Shady" is the closest modern-day version of Barry Sanders. McCoy is off a 2,146-yard season last year (including 52 receptions), the most of any player last year and the 4th most over the last half-decade. 

2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota - The great Adrian Peterson won't last long in your draft and I have no problem if you want to slot him #1 on this list. AP, as they call him, is now a full year removed from his ACL tear and he should be more effective with Norv Turner now running the offense (it's a lengthy list of running backs that Turner has turned into fantasy stars). The Vikings also plan to use Peterson much more in the passing game than in year’s past. 

3. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay  To me, Eddie Lacy is a candidate to be the No. 1 running back and in leagues that heavily-emphasize touchdowns I would slot him No. 1. Lacy was the No. 6 running back last year as a rookie despite playing on a clipped offense without QB Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are loaded with weapons and Lacy will have tons of scoring opportunities. Lacy quickly racked up 47 yards last week in preseason. Draft Lacy as high as you want and do it with confidence. 

4. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City -Jamaal Charles has averaged an amazing 5.6 yards per carry over his NFL career (a half yard more than any other active running back), and he was the No. 1 running back last year in most scoring formats. However, I think I would let someone else draft Charles (and he could go No. 1 overall anyway). Kansas City lost three of its offensive lineman, including star tackle Brandon Albert, and there will not be nearly the same scoring chances for Charles that Eddie Lacy will see. 

5. Matt Forte, Chicago - Matt Forte is off a career-best season both in terms of yards (1,933), touchdowns (12) and receptions. There is no reason to think he won’t approach those numbers again this year and Forte is a super safe selection in your draft. 

6. Giovani Benard, Cincinnati - This is a very aggressive ranking for Giovani Benard but I think one that will pay off. Benard is on a very short list of running backs that will approach 70 receptions, he will get a ton of rushing work (new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson will have the Bengals running significantly more than they did last year) and Benard is a big play waiting to happen. Benard could end up as a Top 3 running back and if he is there in the second round, draft him. 

7. Montee Ball, Denver – Playing on the NFL’s leading scoring team from 2013, and certainly likely one of its top scoring teams in 2014 as well, has its advantages. With no Knowshon Moreno on the team, the gig is all Montee Ball's to be had. Ball has a chance to lead all running backs in touchdowns as a Bronco. Ball also should be more involved in the passing game than you might think - between Moreno, Ball and Ronnie Hillman, Denver running backs caught 92 balls for 812 yards last year. Ball had an appendectomy on August 5th but that is a nonissue and he is already back and ready to play.

8. DeMarco Murray, Dallas - DeMarco Murray enters 2014 off an impressive 1,371-yards, 10-TD, 53-catch season and he should be even busier this year. Injury concern is the only real issue here but it isn’t enough to stop you from confidently making Murray a core piece to your fantasy team in the second round of drafts. 

9. Andre Ellington, Arizona - After being more of a complement last year to Rashard Mendenhall, Andre Ellington enters 2014 as the Cardinals' featured running back. Ellington may not consistently be a goal-line back, but he is a big play waiting to happen (Ellington averaged 5.5 yards per carry as a rookie last year) and he will be a big-time receiver. Ellington collected 39 receptions last year almost as more of a spot contributor and change-of-pace back. 

10. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle - You may be surprised to see Marshawn Lynch this low in the rankings, and call it a hunch, but I think I am going to let him slide on draft day. Lynch has 988 touches over the last three years and I don't see that level of workload sustaining for another season. Additionally, Seattle has the toughest 2014 schedule vs. the run on paper. 

11. Zac Stacy, St. Louis – After sitting on the sidelines for the first month of his rookie season last year with just one carry, Zac Stacy suddenly found himself as the starting running back for the Rams in Week 5, logging 250 carries and collecting 26 receptions. Stacy was the No. 9 RB from Week 5 on last year. Stacy will again be the workhorse and on a better offensive team (with more scoring chances). The addition of offensive tackle Greg Robinson with the 2nd overall pick in this year's draft is also significant. 

12. Doug Martin, Tampa BayDoug Martin will definitely bounce back some in 2014 (he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last year after being overused with 358 touches as a rookie in 2013), and Martin will be a good sleeper if he falls some in drafts. The Bucs should have better offensive-line play and while new offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford if a bit of an unknown as an NFL product, he consistently turned running backs (and quarterbacks) into stars during his 11 years at the University of California. 

13. Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh - The narrative on Le'Veon Bell's rookie season can go multiple ways. On the one hand, Bell averaged just a paltry 3.5 yards per carry last year. On the other hand, Bell returned from a Lisfranc injury and missed just three games, while from Week 4 through the rest of the season Bell was the 7th-best fantasy back logging 1,259 total yards with 45 receptions and 8 TDs. Don't reach for Bell but don't be afraid to add him either, especially if he slips due to his recent DWI and marijuana arrest. Bell is a first-time offender and likely won't be suspended (or for many games), and it is possible that the court issues won't be resolved anyway until after the season. 

14. Alfred Morris, Washington - In my mind, the running back tier has really dropped off at this point and I probably will be drafting a wide receiver over these remaining backs. Alfred Morris did rush for 1,612 yards in 2013 as a rookie, which is the all-time single season rushing record in Washington Redskins history, but he dropped to 1,275 yards last year and his TDs dropped from 13 to 7. I believe a repeat of his 2013 season is much more likely than is seeing his 2012 season again – solid, but not elite, and Morris won't add yards via the passing game.

15. Bishop Sankey, Tennessee - Historically speaking, Bishop Sankey should be good for about 832 rushing yards, another 291 through the air for a total of 1,124 yards on 35 receptions with 7 TDs - that is what the average first overall running back in the NFL draft since 1990 has done (excluding Willis McGahee who sat out his rookie season). Sankey was a workhorse at the University of Washington, racking up over 600 carries his last two seasons while never missing a game in college and collecting a TD in every game last year. 

You can get full running back rankings here at Fantasy Football Warehouse..

Thursday, August 21, 2014

RBs and the 500-receiving yard threshold

Based on last year's stats, there has been a sea change in football and fantasy football. 

In 2012, 94 players had receiving yardage totaling 500 yards or more – just one was a running back: Darren Sproles, who totaled 667 receiving yards on 75 receptions. That was a little low, but over the past decade that happened two other times as well (in 2007 and 2008). In fact, the average though is just 2.8 RBs with 500 receiving yards in a season from 2004-2013. 

And then there was 2013, which was an utter and complete change.  TEN running backs totaled 500 yards receiving last year: 1. Jamal Charles (693), 2. Danny Woodhead (605), 3. Darren Sproles (604), 4. Matt Forte (594), 5. Knowshon Moreno (548), 6. Joique Bell (547), 7. LeSean McCoy (539), 8. Giovani Bernard (514), 9. Pierre Thomas (513), and 10. Reggie Bush (506).  

What does this mean? A few things. First, ever hear anyone belly-ache about the end of the value of running backs in fantasy football? Not so true. Sure, fewer backs get to do it at all, and there is more of a “Running back by committe-approach” to maneuver through on your fantasy team, but teams are passing more and they are incorporating pass-catching PPR running back gems to the mix more than ever. In large part, thank you Sean Payton, Drew Brees and Darren Sproles.  

So, which running back will add 500+ receiving yards to the cause in 2014?

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City: No problem. Charles had 693 receiving yards last year, the most of any running back in the NFL in 2013. 

Giovani Benard, Cincinnati: I think Benard is the best candidate to pop and challenge Charles for the most receiving yards by a running back in 2014. Benard is an excellent receiving back and cracked 500 last year as a rookie on a team that historically didn’t throw to its backs much. 

Andre Ellington, Arizona: Like Giovani Benard and Jamaal Charles, part of the allure for Andre Eillington is his ability to be a mismatch in the passing game. 

Matt Forte, Chicago: It should happen and Forte had 594 last year. If Forte doesn’t hit 500, he should not be too far behind. Forte remains a big-time stud. 

Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, Detroit: It’s hard to bet against either of these two. The Detroit offense will continue to feature both of these RBs as receivers and Matthew Stafford is clearly comfortable with each. I bet Bush and Bell both come up just short of 500, but close. Maybe

LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles, Philadelphia: Detroit made it work last year with both Joique Bell and Reggie Bush topping 500 so it’s possible here in Philly too. 

Montee Ball, Denver: Well, Knowshon Moreno did it last year for the Broncos. In 2013, between Moreno, Ball and Ronnie Hillman, Denver running backs caught 92 balls for 812 yards so there is tons of opportunity here for Ball.  

Danny Woodhead, San Diego: Shouldn’t be any problem, after all Danny Woodhead plays the Danny Woodhead role in the Chargers’ offense. 

C.J. Spiller, Buffalo: It sure does seem like Spiller should do it as he’s a great receiver. Spiller had 459 receiving yards in 2012 so it wouldn’t take much for Spiller to progress in 2014 and get to 500 yards (well, health would be the big key).

Chris Johnson, New York Jets: It all depends on his role but Johnson certainly could (and Johnson did so in 2009 with 503 receiving yards that season. He averages a pretty impressive 45 receptions and 334 receiving yards per year over 6 NFL seasons).

Pierre Thomas, New Orleans: I am going to say probably not. Thomas got there last year but he needed 77 receptions to do it. That’s a ton and he averaged an abysmal 6.7 yards per reception. I will have a sleeper list coming soon - look for Pierre Thomas' teammate Mark Ingram to be on it...

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Who are the top 15 fantasy QBs for 2014?

The NFL season kicks off in just 15 days, and if you are like me, your fantasy football draft day is quickly approaching. Over the next several days, I will cover the top at each of the main fantasy skill-player positions.

Let’s get to the quarterbacks!

1. Peyton Manning - It’s hard to not have Peyton Manning atop the list after an NFL record-setting 5,477 passing yards and 55 passing TDs. Anomaly seasons tend to revert back down (Denver shattered the NFL record with 71 offensive TDs last year). The last two teams to score 60+ TDs on offense dropped by 9 (the Saints scored 53 TDs in 2012 after 62 in 2011) and by 14 (the Packers scored 49 TDs in 2012 after 62 in 2011). Even so, Manning could and should crack 45 TDs.

2. Drew Brees - I am tempted to put Drew Brees as the Number 1 QB, after all he’s cracked 5,000 passing yards for an NFL record three straight seasons. Since joining Sean Payton and the Saints in 2006, Brees has averaged 4,842 passing yards and 35 TDs, year in, year out. He’s not far behind Manning.

3. Aaron Rodgers - Look for Aaron Rodgers to come roaring back in 2014 after missing the bulk of last season, only to return to quickly get taken down in the playoffs. Motivated, talented, loaded with weapons to throw to and at age 30, Rodgers is in the prime of his career. Rodgers could easily be the #1 QB.

4. Matthew Stafford - Matthew Stafford gets a coaching upgrade in new head coach Jim Caldwell and OC Joe Lombardi (who together have coached Peyton Manning and Drew Brees– not a bad duo). Look for Stafford to significantly cut down on mental mistakes and interceptions, while shining in what will essentially be the New Orleans offense brought to the Motor City.

5. Andrew Luck- The Colts stubbornly ran the ball too much last year. They won’t make the same mistake this year of watching Trent Richardson run into the backs of offensive lineman. Indy will throw a ton more, Andrew Luck adds a lot as a rushing QB and Indy is loaded with weapons (not only with the addition of Hakeem Nicks, but the return of Reggie Wayne and TE Dwayne Allen).

6. Russell Wilson - Russell Wilson enters 2014 as a Super Bowl champion. From a fantasy perspective he should be even better. He has more experience and confidence to draw upon, a healthy Percy Harvin, and Wilson adds a lot of additional fantasy points with his legs (Wilson has averaged 514 yards rushing per season in two NFL seasons). You can wait a little on Wilson but I like him – super safe, high floor and he has a higher ceiling than you might think.

7. Nick Foles - Entering his first year as the entrenched starter, Nick Foles had an unreal 27:2 TD/INT ratio last year. That is bound to come down to earth some but Foles nonetheless is a high-end option in Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense.

8. Cam Newton - The bottom line is since entering the NFL three seasons ago, Cam Newton has never not been a Top 5 QB. The problem is Carolina won’t be a heavy pass team but Cam is coming off a career-best 24 passing TDs and he will remain a big advantage by adding rushing yards (Cam dropped to 585 rushing yards last year but he still led the league among QBs).

9. Matt Ryan - Atlanta passed on an unreal 68.7 percent of its plays last year – that’s the most in NFL history. Atlanta will pass less, and he lost Tony Gonzalez, but Matt Ryan is still an upper-echelon QB and he is a super safe bet in your fantasy drafts.

10. Tom Brady - Tom Brady will be 37 years old this season and comes off a down season, but he’s still Tom Brady. Over the second half of the season last year, Brady averaged 315 YPG and had 16 TDs. With a 77.5% winning percentage, Brady enters 2014 with the best winning percentage of any QB in NFL history (with Roger Staubach and Joe Montana as the only other QBs in NFL history with a winning percentage above 70%).

11. Jay Cutler - There’s a lot to be said about waiting on a QB in your fantasy drafts, loading up on skill position players early instead. If you go that route, rolling with Jay Cutler could and should pay big dividends. HC Marc Trestman is an offensive genius – he and Cutler will be even better together in their second season.

12. Robert Griffin III - There are plenty reasons to be optimistic here. RG3 is shedding his brace for the 2014 season, they have added DeSean Jackson at receiver, and new HC Jay Gruden is a big upgrade from a fantasy perspective (Washington will pass much more than last year). However, RG3 remains a high injury risk until he learns to stop taking big hits.

13. Colin Kaepernick - It doesn’t really feel this way, but Colin Kaepernick is entering just his second full NFL starting season. He is a big play waiting to happen – Kaepernick averaged 13.2 yards per pass play last season (2nd best in the NFL last year), plus he can do a lot of damage with his legs (Kaepernick was one of only four QBs to top 500 yards rushing last year).

14. Tony Romo - The back is of some concern, but Tony Romo has tremendous weapons and new play-caller Scott Linehan should help Romo and the offense overall be more effective this season – plus the Dallas defense is likely going to be super weak leading to lots of shootouts.

15. Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh plans to run a lot more up-tempo and shotgun offense this year. Roethlisberger was the 4th best fantasy quarterback during the final nine games last year.

Happy drafting.

You can get full QB rankings here at Fantasy Football Warehouse…

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Carolina Panthers fantasy football deep dive!

TOP SHELF TALENT: Casual fantasy players almost always surprised when I tell them that  Cam Newton has been a Top 5 fantasy QB each and every year he has been in the league. Cam’s impact and success seems to go more unnoticed than it should but the bottom line is this: Cam is the first player in NFL history with 50 passing TDs and 25 rushing TDs in his first three seasons, and he is also the first player in NFL history with 10,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards in his first three seasons. There is the concern that Cam will run less, but when it counts I believe he will still be running. Cam is coming off a career-worst 585 rushing yards last season, but he still had more rushing yards than any other QB in the NFL last season. Don’t let the new receiving corps detract you either. Cam had relatively weak options last year. Staring down Kelvin Benjamin, Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant, is as good if not better than Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn. Cam has never missed a game and he is maturing as well, coming off a 12-win season and getting a taste of the playoffs. The nice thing too about drafting Cam to lead your team is he can likely be had at a discount in your draft (assuming you are not playing with die-hard locals of course). Cam is typically going in the late 7th round or early 8th round as the 10th QB off the board. If you can draft six skill position players and then land Cam in the 7th round that is smooth drafting.  

You are going to perhaps call me crazy, and we can circle back in five months, but I am putting rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin in the “Top Shelf” fantasy category. I drank the kool-aid and called this back in early May and listed Benjamin as the #20 WR in the “Expert Rankings” that are now published in the Fantasy Index Magazine (only the Top 20 are submitted per position). It was an insane call compared to the entries – that, or it is the type of out-of-the-box thinking that separates you from the masses. Benjamin no doubt gives Cam Newton a different type of weapon at receiver than he’s ever worked with as he towers at 6’5”. I think the two are going to form a tremendous bond. Benjamin led the ACC last year with 15 receiving TDs and he ranked tied for 3rd in the nation. I think Benjamin is going to be a busy red zone target as well in the NFL. 


In terms of team defense, you have to put the Panthers Defense clearly in the Top Shelf Talent category. The Panthers have a lethal sack combo of Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy and arguably the best front seven in the NFL overall, anchored by perhaps the best middle linebacker in the game (now that Ray Lewis has retired) in Luke Kuechly. As an added bonus, the Panthers don’t have their BYE week until late November so you can draft the Panthers as your only defense and not have to worry about using a slot on a second defense for three months. 


SOLID FANTASY STARTERS 

After an amazing eight straight seasons of Steve Smith leading the team in receiving yards, and ten years out of 11, it was TE Greg Olsen who actually was the Panthers leading receiver last season. In terms of receptions, Olsen has improved each season as a Panther from 45 in 2011 (Cam Newton’s rookie season), to 69 in 2012 and 72 last year. There’s no reason to think that Olsen’s numbers will improve from what they were last year, but there’s no reason to think they will be much lower either. Over the last two seasons, Olsen is the only tight end in the NFL who has caught a quarter of his team’s passes and Olsen has finished in the Top 10 among tight ends each of the last two years. 

SLEEPERS 

It’s awfully hard to continue drafting Jonathan Stewart year over year. He is such a fantasy tease. The former 13th overall pick in the NFL Draft sure does look the part, but he simply can’t stay healthy – not to mention that Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert are there to steal carries and touchdowns. Still, Stewart is the team’s most likely back to turn into a bellcow (running back who carries a huge load) and he’s shown glimpses in the past. Stewart had 1,272 total yards and 11 TDs in 2009, and 47 receptions in 2011. I certainly wouldn’t reach for Jonathan Stewart, but if he falls in drafts he is a sneaky later-round gamble to add to your roster. 

DEPTH 

Jerricho Cotchery is set to be a pretty critical cog on the Panthers’ offensive machine this season – and he hardly registers a blip on the fantasy radar. Cam Newton’s passes have to go somewhere and he is coming off a career year with 24 passing TDs. Arguably Cam should only get better with another year of NFL experience, while Cotchery comes off a career-best 10 TD season last year with Pittsburgh. Cotchery isn’t going to win you any fantasy football leagues mind you, but he’s plenty fine depth for bye weeks and he won’t cost you much. 

You might be tempted to put DeAngelo Williams higher than this – don’t be. Williams is now a 31-year-old back with very limited upside. Williams goes as the 107th pick on average which is far too high if you ask me. Aside from busting the occasional and unpredictable long one every five games or so, Williams is almost a nonfactor in the red zone. In the past two seasons, Williams has carried the ball just one time inside the 3-yard-line. 


SUPER SLEEPERS 

Looking for a super sleeper? The Panthers have one in TE Brandon Williams. First the upside – Williams has big-time athletic ability and looks the part. He is a former basketball player and that recipe has paid off before, even with players who had limited football experience in college (i.e., Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham). Williams played little football in college with just two catches as he was forced to stop playing in 2011 because of spinal stenosis. Williams has looked promising in OTAs and in Week 1 of pre-season he caught 3 balls for 50 yards and a score. His playing time is likely limited unless the Panthers decide to play more 2-TE sets (could happen) but he would be a high-end waiver wire pick-up if Greg Olsen were to miss time. 

WAIVER WIRE WATCH 

Jason Avant looks locked in as the team’s #3 WR but your fantasy team is in bad shape if you have to start Avant under any circumstance. Over his eight years in the NFL, Avant averages 37 receptions and 456 yards per season, with a career-high 3 TDs in 2009 and Avant has just 12 total TDs in eight years on 297 receptions. Speaking of lack of play-making ability, here’s a sad stat – over Avant’s career he has 297 career receptions and just two of them have gone for 40+ yards. 

I would like to add RB Kenjon Barner to the super sleeper list as he is super electric and could excel in the receiving game. However, the Carolina backfield is just too crowded and the workload isn’t there yet. However, if there is an injury to Jonathan Stewart (and it is certainly hard to imagine him playing 16 games given his track record) or to DeAngelo Williams then Barner will likely quickly get on the fantasy radar. 


If there is an injury to either Kelvin Benjamin or Jerricho Cotchery, Tavarres King likely would suddenly find himself starting in the NFL. King could be a nice deep threat for the Panthers and he has fantastic stop and start moves which he used effectively to beat defenders deep in college at Georgia – on 42 receptions in 2012, King averaged 22.6 YPC as a senior (ranking #1 in the SEC and #3 in the NCAA that season). 


In TD-heavy formats, RB Mike Tolbert has some value as he’s scored 12 TDs over the last year but who knows when those scores will occur and Tolbert won’t contribute much in terms of yards (Tolbert has averaged just 31 YPG since signing with Carolina prior to the 2012 season). Use your roster spots for guys with more upside. 


I have to admit I have a soft spot for Tiquan Underwood. You have to like an overachiever hard worker, and one with a great attitude. After getting the Patriots logo carved into the back of his hair, Underwood was cut by Bill Belichick literally the day before the Super Bowl in the 2011 season. Despite what had to be a tremendous disappointment, Underwood to his credit said the following day, “The NFL is a business, and I respect coach (Bill) Belichick a lot because he is going to do what he needs to win that game.” Underwood is worth monitoring however as he is the only receiver on the Panthers team with 4.4 speed and he started the first 10 games of his NFL career last year opposite Vincent Jackson in Tampa. 


2014 SCHEDULE SKINNY 

The Panther schedule is loaded with fireworks for the 2014 season for sure. Perhaps the highlight will come in Week 4 as the team will travel to Baltimore and square off against former Panther Steve Smith. The Panthers are slated for three prime-time games, at home against the Steelers on Sunday Night in Week 3, again at home in Week 9 in what will be a night super-charged facing the Saints, and then again the following week in Week 10 as they will go to Philadelphia to square off against the Eagles. There are many other interesting match-ups as well this year - against the Lions, Seahawks, Packers, Vikings, Bengals and Browns, not to mention the always exciting AFC South games. It looks to be an exciting season on the docket.  

OVERALL PREDICTION 

I hate to call for a down season from last year’s remarkable 12-4 run, but I am slotting the Panthers at 10-6, and honestly that feels a little aggressive given a somewhat daunting-looking schedule. I’ll predict the Panthers start hot at 3-0, but that includes wins against Pittsburgh and Detroit (but home games). They then lose at Baltimore, rebound to win at home against the Bears, before succumbing to a 3-game losing streak at Cincinnati, at Green Bay and versus the Seahawks. Going to Philadelphia is a tough challenge too. That puts them at 6-5 at the BYE. I have them winning 4 of their last 5 (this would include however sweeping the Falcons) and getting them to 10-6 on the season. We shall see, but it would be great to see Cam win his first playoff game this year and who knows, anything can happen once in the playoffs.  

Saturday, August 16, 2014

Who is ready for some fantasy football?

Greeting Charlotte Observer readers and presumably many a Carolina Panther fan out there. I am excited to first share a little fantasy football background on myself and tee up some articles that will help you prepare and succeed in your fantasy football drafts and the 2014 fantasy football season. 

I was raised in Michigan, and I now live in Charlotte after previously residing in Knoxville, Houston, a few different places in NJ and Seattle. As a now six-year resident of Charlotte, I have adopted the Panthers as my new favorite team. I moved here during what ended up being the height of the John Fox era, a 12-4 season in 2008 with Jake Delhomme under center and DeAngelo Williams surprisingly leading the NFL in rushing TDs with 18 scores that season. John Fox then plummeted to 2-14 and to a large extent squabbled horribly with Panthers’ ownership and general management. Now, we’ve had three seasons of the Ron Rivera era (I mean the Cam Newton era!) and I, like you, am looking forward to the 2014 season. 

I started playing fantasy football back in 1990 after picking up a Miller Lite “handbook for fantasy football” and drafting spontaneously with some of my relatives during the backyard wedding reception of my grandmother who re-married later in her life. This was well before the Internet of course and I fondly remember calculating stats by hand when the Monday newspaper came out, photocopying and mailing newsletters, and sometime down the road getting a second phone line so people could leave lineups and transaction requests. I will be heading back to Michigan soon for what will be the 25th year of our league. I am co-owner and senior writer for Fantasy Football Warehouse and you can also see some of my contributions in the Fantasy Index magazine that can be found at most grocery stores. 

Over the next two weeks I will be sharing a recap of the Panthers from a fantasy football perspective - part of our team "Deep Dive" series. Rankings will be released soon here on the Observer site, plus some other articles and insights are in store. 

Thanks for stopping by, and  for 2014, I would say: 

  • 1) Don't follow the herd - be aggressive and be the guy that lands Saints' WR Brandin Cooks for example; 
  • 2) Rather than taking Peyton Manning, Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers very early at quarterback, get Andrew Luck a few rounds later or gamble with Jay Cutler, Robert Griffin III or Colin Kaepernick later in the draft; 
  • 3) Don't be afraid to draft rookies on the cheap - they are coming out of college more prepared than ever as more college teams are running pro-style systems and there is a tremendous rookie class entering the NFL - in fact, more wide receivers were drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft this year (12) than any other draft in NFL history. 
Welcome to the blog and stay tuned for more fantasy football good times.